On behalf of the Voter Participation Center, and in partnership with Voto Latino, Latino Decisions conducted a survey to assess the baseline, election-year opinions of Latinos. The 1,200-person survey includes 200 Latino eligible voters from each of six 2020 presidential battleground states that contain Latino populations significant enough to swing a statewide election: Arizona, Florida, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Texas. This is the first survey of 2020 to include robust samples of Latinos in North Carolina and Pennsylvania. Conducted online between June 7 and June 19, the poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.8.
Topics surveyed include:
- The 2020 election, voting and candidates: Likelihood and enthusiasm about voting in November; outreach efforts by the major political parties or candidates;
- Black Lives Matter: Opinions about policing, protests and the reform movement;
- Vote-by-Mail: Past experience with VBM, knowledge of state rules, confidence and trust;
- COVID-19: Experiences and attitudes about the impact of the pandemic, and the policy and political response by governments and elected officials.
Among the findings, Latino Decisions identified five key results:
- Latinos, and especially younger Latinos, demonstrate a lower intensity or enthusiasm about the 2020 election than earlier in 2020 and at this point in 2016.
- While Joe Biden is winning Latinos 2-1, he is underperforming with Latinos relative to Clinton in June 2016 polling and has opportunities for growth.
- Latinos support the Black Lives Movement, believe police violence is systemic, and younger Latinos in particular see the protests as important.
- Latinos express low levels of information about vote-by-mail options and how the COVID- 19 pandemic may affect their ballot access in November;
- While certainty to vote may be low, Latinos can be mobilized and motivated to vote with specific, issue-based appeals. Expanding access and reducing costs of health care continue to be a top issue, as does fighting racial injustice against Latinos and Blacks.
- Latinos—especially younger Latinos—are less motivated to vote in 2020.
- Biden has a large advantage over Trump, however Latinos express somewhat low enthusiasm for Biden.
- Political outreach continues to lag among already disconnected Latinos.
- Police reform and Black Lives Matter have captured the attention of Latinos.
- Latinos’ experience and familiarity with vote-by-mail is limited.
- COVID-19 continues to have a broad impact on the Latino community.
- Most Latinos find the Trump Administration’s rhetoric offensive and off-putting.
- Democratic vice-presidential candidates of color have potential for Latino mobilization.
- Health care and racial justice present important opportunities to mobilize the Latino electorate.