Voting in Massachusetts Reveals Continuation of Trends Evident in New Jersey and Virginia

Washington, D.C. — A post-election poll commissioned by Women’s Voices. Women Vote (WVWV) reveals that while independents proved decisive in the Massachusetts election for the U.S. Senate, there is a disconnect between voting and the desire for change among key constituencies in the electorate that is driving recent elections.

The results of the poll offer clear evidence that the voting in Massachusetts is a continuation of trends that WVWV first reported last November after the elections in New Jersey and Virginia: decreased turnout among Rising American Electorate (RAE) — women, youth, African Americans, and Latinos; Republicans beginning to make inroads with some traditionally Democratic voters; the existence of the “marriage gap,” and a striking disconnect between voters who voted for and still support President Obama and their electoral participation.

Summarizing these trends,

• Turnout is an important factor driving the results in these elections.  Voters in the Rising American Electorate are disengaged and their share of the electorate has dropped.
• Changes in the margin of voting by RAE groups are also a factor.  Progressive candidates are not gaining the share of votes among RAE voters that they have in 2008 and 2006.  Coakley won the RAE vote but by a smaller margin than in the past, and the RAE represented a smaller vote share than in recent elections.
• The “marriage gap” — differences in the voting rates and preferences between unmarried and married women – continues to drive electoral outcomes.  There was a 17point marriage gap in terms of partisanship; however, the impact of the unmarried women’s vote was somewhat muted due to their decreased participation.
• Voters have divided emotions about the pace of change and the direction of the country, but generally support the policies advocated by President Obama and Democrats.

Responding to these trends, Page Gardner, President of WVWV, said: “Following what we observed in the elections in New Jersey and Virginia the voting in Massachusetts now establishes a clear trend of voter drop-off among Rising American Electorate and the existence of a marriage gap that is being shaped by declining participation by unmarried women.”

Gardner continued:  “In Massachusetts, RAE voters represent just under half of all eligible voters, yet they continue to underperform that share at the ballot box.  Last night, the RAE was roughly 27 percent of all voters — a decline of 9 points compared to 2008 and 18 points lower than their overall share of eligible voters.”

Other findings of note:

Independents were key. As nearly all publicly available polling demonstrated over the last few weeks, independents played a large role in this election and that role was magnified due to voter drop-off and voting patterns among key segments of the RAE.  Democrats enjoy a large registration advantage in Massachusetts, but that registration advantage was not large enough to offset huge losses among independents and smaller losses among some of the RAE.

Issue divisions were also important. While Coakley won health care voters, Brown won among jobs and economy voters and tax and spend voters.