Demographics as Destiny

December 7th, 2011

Demographics will help define America’s political destiny — at least for the next decade. A new Rising American Electorate (RAE) made up of fast-growing numbers of unmarried women, people of color and young voters under 30 are now the majority (52.8 percent) of the voting eligible population. It was this new majority that pushed President Obama into the White House in 2008 – and this new majority will be even larger next year, comprising an estimated 53.5 percent of the 2012 voting pool. 

According to the November 2010 Current Population Survey, the RAE was responsible for 80% of the growth in U.S. population between 2000 and 2010. Much of that increase was among Latinos – who grew at the fastest rate – 62 percent in the last decade.  But it was actually unmarried women – single, separated, divorced and widowed women — who had the most growth in numbers – 8.3 million between 2000 and 2010. 

While the focus of the demographics debate has been on the increase in the minority share of the vote and its electoral consequences, just as fundamental to the discussion is the role of unmarried women in determining electoral outcomes, and, because of their size and values, in representing a unique opportunity to grow the pool of reliably progressive voters in key states:

  • Unmarried women now make up almost half, 47 percent, of adult women, up from 38 percent in 1970.
  • They make up a quarter of eligible voters, almost the same size of white evangelical Protestants, the Republican’s largest base group.
  • The growth rate of unmarried women is double that of married women and their percentage of the voting eligible population will continue to expand.  Between 2010 and 2010 they are expected to add close to two million (1.8) to their ranks.
  • Nineteen (19) states have a higher percentage of unmarried women than the overall national percentage for this group (25%) –including the key states of Michigan, Nevada, New Mexico, and North Carolina. 

To win in 2012, progressives must hold onto the overwhelming majority of minority voters and some subset of white voters – and increasing the participation unmarried women who as a group are 66 percent white, provides progressives with a way to retain an essential level of white, historically supportive voters.

Survey data shows unmarried women to be consistently progressive in their values and populist in their politics. Unmarried women supported Obama over McCain by a 70-29 margin. 

But the almost 22 percentage point drop off of unmarried women between 2008 and 2010 proves their support and numbers cannot be taken for granted.  The economic downturn has affected these women disproportionately and research finds them disillusioned and disengaged from politics.

There are two paths that must be pursued to ensure unmarried women show up and show up in sufficient numbers in 2012 – registration and education – and both must begin now.

Going into 2012, almost 40 percent of unmarried women are unregistered.  That’s why The Voter Participation Center (VPC) has started quarterly mail registration drives to sign-up these highly mobile (41 percent of unmarried women moved between 2006 and 2010), low information Americans. Increased participation begins with increased registration.

In 2012, registering voters will be a significantly tougher job than it was in 2008 because of new and restrictive voting laws that have been passed in 14 states, laws that could keep five (5) million Americans from voting next year according to the Brennan Center for Justice. Disproportionately and negatively affected will be unmarried women and the rest of the Rising American Electorate – citizens who have been historically locked out of the electoral system. Overcoming these barriers to voting will take an intense, highly targeted and persistent education effort to ensure every American’s voice is heard in next year’s elections.

In addition, an ongoing thematic effort must be made to connect the dots between what happens in Washington and in their daily lives.  Right now, too many unmarried women have lost their jobs, their savings, their homes and health care to believe an election can change their lives for the better. 

That can and must change. No one expects the 2012 campaigns to produce a silver bullet that will fix the economy or create a million new jobs.  But promoting an agenda that pushes for progress that is possible and includes policies that touch and improve the lives of unmarried women, including increasing the minimum wage, protecting Social Security, providing paid sick days and affordable health care that cover birth control, would enlarge their stake and engagement in the 2012 elections – and  help them fulfill their destiny collectively and individually.